🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.